GTA CONDO SALES DOWN WHILE PRICES REMAIN FLAT

• Selling prices for condominium apartments bucked the overall downward trend in the housing market during the fourth quarter of 2022. The average selling price in Q4 2022 stayed in line with the average in Q4 2021.
• Total condo apartment sales amounted to 3,582 in Q4 2022 – down 54.1 per cent compared to Q4 2021
• New listings were also down on a year-over-year basis by 14.3 per cent. The average Q4 2022 selling price was $710,520, which was slightly higher than the Q4 2021 average of $710,246.
• Looking at individual Greater Toronto Area (GTA) regions, a similar trend played itself out, with average selling prices remaining flat compared to last year.

RESIDENTIAL STATS

COMMERCIAL STATS

The “All Leasing Activity (Sq. Ft.)” chart summarizes total industrial, commercial/retail and office square feet leased through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.
The “All Sales Activity” chart summarizes total industrial and commercial/retail and office sales through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.

HIGH INTEREST RATES DRIVE RENTAL DEMAND IN GTA

• Average condominium apartment rents continued to increase by double-digit annual rates in the fourth quarter of 2022.
• While market conditions remained tight enough to support very strong rent growth, there was more balance in the rental marketplace compared to the same period a year earlier in 2021.
• The number of condominium apartment rental transactions reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) MLS® System was down on a year-over-year basis by 19.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
• The number of rental listings was also down over the same period, but by a lesser annual rate of 11.8 per cent.
• The average rent for a one-bedroom condominium apartment increased by 19 per cent to $2,503 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Over the same period, the average two-bedroom rent increased by 14.1 per cent to $3,178.

CONDOMINIUM SALES STATS

CONDOMINIUM RENTAL STATS

In conjunction with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) redistricting project, historical data may be subject to revision moving forward. This could temporarily impact per cent change comparisons to data from previous years.

Distinctive Real Estate Advisors Inc., Brokerage is pleased to present a recap of the latest market forecast release and September highlights from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

We’d welcome an opportunity to discuss the Condo Sales Down & High Rental Demand in the GTA. If you have any questions about our services, please contact our team.

Key Takeaways:

• Price pressures are waning while the bond market is signaling a shift in mindset from the Bank of Canada
• Home sales are weak but we’re due for a decent bounce of +20% from current levels
• Price declines from peak are now the deepest since at least the 1980s, led by big drops in BC and Ontario.

Recessionary signals drag rates lower- BoC pause on deck

• Starts fell to the lowest level since early 2020 last month and have fallen 24% over the past 3 months. A decline like that has historically foretold recession, and we’ve only seen larger declines a handful of other times in the past 30-odd years: one month in 2020, two during the Financial Crisis, and three in 1990.
• Bond markets are forward-looking. They predict where the Bank of Canada is going. The data is now finally at the point where the Bank can contemplate moving to the sidelines while the impact of the rate hikes work through the economy.
• We’ll see sales nationally rally more than 20% seasonally adjusted this spring (which would still leave them roughly 35% below the early 2022 highs).

December home sales rise, new listings plunge

The December data, home sales were up 1.3% m/m primarily due to a 4.7% jump in Ontario and a 2.9% increase in BC. Still, that left Q4 sales were down 4.9% seasonally adjusted relative to Q3. Outside of Q2 2020 when the country was locked down due to COVID, it was the lowest quarter for sales in over 12 years.

Seasonally adjusted new listings fell 6.4% m/m to hit the lowest month since May 2020. And it was the lowest number of new listings of any December in 20 years

Even though the flow of new listings coming to market has slowed, active inventory continues to build. It was up another 2.2% m/m last month building on a 3.6% increase in November. Inventory is now up 59% y/y led by a 202% surge in Ontario.

Distinctive Real Estate Advisors Inc., Brokerage is pleased to present, in collaboration with Ben Rabidoux, Founder of Edge Realty Analytics, this timely research in today’s economic insight on the current housing trends.

We’d welcome an opportunity to discuss the perspectives presented in Recessionary signals drag rates lower report. If you have any questions about our services, please contact our team.

On Wednesday, January 25th, 2023, The Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening .

This is the Bank’s eighth consecutive rate hike and was expected by markets.

Looking ahead, the Bank said it “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases,” but that it is also “prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed.”

There is a growing consensus that the Bank has now reached—or is nearing—its terminal rate for this rate-hike cycle. Officials from the Bank of Canada have indicated that its future rate decisions will be driven by economic data. The next announcement will take place March 8th.

As noted in Mortgage Professionals Canada’s January 2023 Housing and Mortgage Market Review released Monday, some progress has been made in the fight against record-high inflation.

“While borrowers have so far been largely resilient in the face of sharply higher interest rates, we can’t ignore the affordability challenges that are being faced by many.

The hope is that inflation will continue to moderate in the coming months and that this is the final rate hike variable-rate mortgage borrowers will have to contend with. The uncertainty we continue to see in the market under scores the value of mortgage professionals.” – Lauren van den Berg, President & CEO, MPC The Bank of Canada.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 8th, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 12, 2023.

#canada #bank #interestrates

We’d welcome an opportunity to discuss this important January 25th, 2023 announcement from Bank of Canada or if you have any questions about our services, please contact our team.

Key Highlights:

• There were 3,117 sales reported through Toronto Real Regional Real Estate Board’s (“TRREB”) MLS® System in December 2022 –down 48.2 per cent compared to December 2021.
• New listings totalled 4,074 – down 21.3 per cent compared to 5,177 in December 2021.
• The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down 8.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December 2022.
• The December average selling price, at $1,051,216, was down by 9.2 per cent compared to the December 2021 average of $1,157,837.

RESIDENTIAL STATS

COMMERICAL STATS

The “All Leasing Activity (Sq. Ft.)” chart summarizes total industrial, commercial/retail and office square feet leased through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.
The “All Sales Activity” chart summarizes total industrial and commercial/retail and office sales through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.

GTA Market Snapshot

• The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a markedadjustment in 2022 compared to record levels in 2021. Existing affordability issues brought about by a lack of housing supply were exacerbated by sustained interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.
• There were 75,140 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in 2022 down 38.2 per cent compared to the 2021 record of 121,639.
• The number of new listings amounted to 152,873 –down 8.2 per cent compared to 166,600 new listings in 2021. Seasonally adjusted monthly data for sales and price data show a marked flattening of the sales and price trends since the late summer.

CONDOMINIUM SALES STATS

CONDOMINIUM RENTAL STATS

In conjunction with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) redistricting project, historical data may be subject to revision moving forward. This could temporarily impact per cent change comparisons to data from previous years.

Distinctive Real Estate Advisors Inc., Brokerage is pleased to present a recap of the latest market forecast release and September highlights from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

We’d welcome an opportunity to discuss the December Toronto Regional Real Estate Market Watch presentation. If you have any questions about our services, please contact our team.