Homebuyers stayed on the sidelines in September, even as the supply of homes for sale kept getting thinner. Sales slipped, prices softened, and fewer sellers came to market than a year ago.
That mix doesn’t point cleanly to a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. The details matter more than the headline.
September Market Snapshot
- Sales: 5,040, down 9.0% from September 2025
- New listings: 16,500, down 14.4% year over year
- Active listings: 26,131, down 9.3% year over year
- Average selling price: $1,006,409, down 5.1% year over year
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: $917,600, down 4.7% year over year
- Days on market: average listing days on market of 34 (33 a year ago), average property days on market of 51 (unchanged)
- Sale-to-list ratio: 98%
- By home type (average price, year over year): detached $1,292,016 (−5.1%), semi-detached $1,015,202 (−0.2%), townhouse $820,637 (−4.6%), condo apartment $605,257 (−7.7%)
Key takeaway: Listings are falling faster than sales, which limits how far prices can slide, but buyers aren’t yet showing up in numbers large enough to push prices back up.
TRREB also noted that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, September sales and new listings both fell from August, and both the HPI Composite and the average price edged lower.
This Month by the Numbers
Financing and Rate Outlook
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2, noting that upside risks to inflation have increased and that new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain. That was the seventh straight hold. The next announcement is October 28, along with a new Monetary Policy Report.
Most economists still expect rates to stay put. TD Economics expects rates to remain unchanged through next year, though money markets are pricing in a partial increase by the December decision. For buyers, that means the days of waiting for lower borrowing costs look less certain than they did earlier this year, and the October 28 forecast is worth watching.
What this means if you’re buying
You still have more choice and more negotiating room than you did a few years ago, with homes selling at about 98% of asking and benchmark prices below last year’s. Condos are where that shows most: apartment prices fell 7.7% year over year, and in the 905 area they fell 12.0%.
The risk of waiting is that supply is tightening. If listings keep shrinking while buyer confidence returns, the window for today’s pricing could narrow.
What this means if you’re selling
Fewer competing listings help, but pricing still has to reflect the market. Prices are down year over year in almost every category, and buyers are taking their time. Homes priced realistically and well prepared are the ones that move.
Detached and semi-detached sellers in the 416 have held up best, with semi-detached prices in the 416 up 2.1% year over year. If more sellers stay away through the fall, conditions may improve for those who do list.
Broader Context: Worth Watching
Jobs. Canada lost 42,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate held at 6.4%. Toronto’s three-month average unemployment rate was 6.8%. September’s labour numbers arrive October 9.
Trade. The United States began imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian goods on August 22. Ottawa’s countertariffs also reach homebuilding materials, which industry groups warn could raise construction costs. TRREB said trade uncertainty and inflation worries are a main reason buyers are hesitating.
Population and rentals. Federal permanent resident targets are set at 380,000 a year through 2028, and RBC reports Toronto saw no population growth in 2025. That has cooled rental demand, which matters for investors and for would-be buyers who are renting.
Policy.
- Municipal: On October 2, the City of Toronto launched free pre-approved designs for fourplex and sixplex buildings, with fourplexes permitted city-wide. TRREB has also renewed its call to reduce Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax and oppose its expansion, with the municipal election approaching.
- Rent guideline: Ontario’s 2027 rent increase guideline is 1.9%.
- Vacant Home Tax: The deadline to dispute a 2025 bill is December 31, 2026. The 2026 declaration deadline hasn’t been announced yet.
The Bottom Line
September’s story is demand on pause and supply thinning out. Buyers still have leverage, and prices are still below last year, but the room for both to hold may not last if listings keep shrinking and confidence returns. As always, preparation and strategy matter more than any one month’s headline.
If you’re wondering what this means for your home, your neighbourhood, or your timeline, reach out. I’m happy to walk through the numbers with you and look at what makes sense for your situation.
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