Ottawa’s housing market closed out 2025 with a familiar December slowdown, reflecting normal seasonal patterns rather than any structural weakness. Sales softened into the end of the year, inventory dipped as expected over the holidays, and prices remained broadly stable.
Despite a quieter November and December, the full-year picture tells a more reassuring story:
- Total residential sales finished 1.3% higher than 2024
- Total dollar volume rose 4.1% year-over-year
The result was a year defined by balance and resilience — not urgency or excess.
Inventory, Prices, and Market Balance
December sales totaled 587 residential properties, closely aligned with long-term December averages outside the pandemic years. While activity slowed, inventory trends tell an important story.
Active listings declined seasonally but remain elevated compared with recent years:
- Year-end inventory was 19% higher than 2024
- 45% higher than 2023
- 89% higher than 2022
Months of inventory rose to 4.3, bringing the market closer to long-term, pre-pandemic norms.
Prices remained stable:
- Average residential sale price: $658,943, essentially unchanged year-over-year
- Benchmark prices have adjusted gradually since summer, while average prices continue to reflect the mix of homes selling
Overall, the market remains balanced — offering buyers more leverage while allowing sellers to benefit from steady, fundamentals-driven demand.
Market Conditions by Property Type
Not all segments are moving the same way:
- Single-family homes remain the most resilient, supported by limited supply and consistent demand
- Townhomes continue to attract first-time buyers, though benchmark prices show some softening
- Condos remain the softest segment, with higher inventory levels and more subdued sales activity
This segmentation reinforces the importance of tailored pricing and strategy.
Why Confidence Is Improving
Employment remains the key driver of housing confidence. National job data turned meaningfully positive late in 2025, with several consecutive months of gains. Historically, employment stability is the strongest signal that housing activity will follow.
At the same time:
- The Bank of Canada held interest rates through year-end
- Bond yields stabilized, allowing modest improvements in some fixed-rate mortgages
- Forward guidance suggests no rate hikes in early 2026, with the possibility of easing later in the year depending on inflation and labour data
Markets often shift before the headlines do. Buyers waiting for perfect clarity typically return just as competition begins to rebuild.
First-Time Buyers Are Ready — But Cautious
Survey data continues to show:
- Strong desire to purchase
- Ongoing concern about timing
- A reliance on trusted, data-driven guidance
This group doesn’t need perfect rates. They need clarity, structure, and confidence — which is why informed planning matters more than ever.
Fewer REALTORS®, Higher Standards
Across Ontario, the number of active REALTORS® has declined. For consumers, this shift matters.
- Buyers benefit from more experienced, data-driven guidance
- Sellers face a more strategic environment where preparation, pricing, and marketing are critical
- The market increasingly rewards skill, expertise, and local knowledge
Looking Ahead to Spring 2026
Any improvement in activity is expected to be gradual rather than sudden. Interest rate stability is helping confidence, but buyers continue to move carefully.
For sellers planning a spring move, preparation is key:
- Decluttering and addressing small repairs early
- Improving presentation and curb appeal
- Aligning pricing with current market realities before inventory rises
For buyers, current conditions offer a quieter window:
- Less competition
- More negotiating flexibility
- Improved affordability compared with peak pricing
Historically, this window often closes before rate cuts appear in headlines.
Let’s Talk Strategy
1. Request Your 2026 Strategic Market Plan
- A personalized plan that aligns your goals with where the market is heading—not where it has been.
2. Book a Pre-Spring Pricing & Positioning Consultation
- Essential for sellers considering listing between February and June 2026.
3. First-Time Buyer Roadmap: Unlock Your Path to Ownership
- Designed for buyers seeking clarity, confidence, and trusted guidance.
If you’d like a custom neighbourhood-level snapshot, a mortgage review, or insights specific to your property or goals — reach out today. I’m ready to provide you with clarity, strategy, and a steady hand through these shifting conditions.
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