As the year winds down, here’s a snapshot of what’s happening in Ottawa’s housing market and what it means heading into 2026.
November Market Snapshot: Seasonal Slowdown, Higher Supply
Early winter weather and economic caution contributed to a sharper-than-usual seasonal slowdown in November.
- Sales: 880 homes sold
- Down from October
- 18.2% lower than November 2024
- Year-to-date sales remain 1.5% ahead of 2024
- Average Price: $680,496
- Up ~2% year over year
- Prices typically dip from October to November, but this decline was larger than normal
- Market Balance:
- Active listings: 3,721
- Months of inventory (MOI): 4.2
- Overall balanced, but supply is clearly trending higher
What’s Driving the Numbers
Single-Family Homes Remain the Anchor
- Average price: $825,827
- +4.8% year over year
- Continues to drive overall price stability
Townhomes & Apartments Face More Pressure
- Townhomes:
- Average price: $542,607
- Down from October and year-to-date levels
- Apartments:
- MOI above 7 months
- Sales down more than one-third year over year
- Prices holding—for now—but inventory is rising meaningfully
While Ottawa is not experiencing Toronto-level condo oversupply, the trend is worth watching. Nearly 70% of new housing starts this year are rentals and condos, creating a longer-term pipeline of multi-unit supply.
Big Picture: 2025 to Date
- Total sales: 13,075 (+1.5% YoY)
- YTD average price: $699,635 (+3.0%)
- Total sales value YTD: $9B (+4.6%)
- Active listings are higher than any of the past five years—this is more than a normal seasonal bump.
Confidence Signals Are Improving
Employment
Canada added 53,600 jobs in November, marking three consecutive months of gains—historically a key precursor to renewed housing activity.
Interest Rates
- Bank of Canada is holding steady
- Bond yields have stabilized
- Some lenders are making selective fixed-rate reductions
- Forecasts now point to no rate hikes in early 2026 and potential easing later in the year
Confidence—not dramatic price drops—is the catalyst markets are waiting for.
The Quiet Opportunity Most People Miss
Pre-construction activity has slowed sharply due to cost pressures and financing constraints. By 2027–2028, Ontario is expected to face a structural shortage—especially in townhomes, semis, and entry-level detached homes.
Today’s inventory window will not last.
When confidence returns, supply will tighten quickly—and pricing pressure will follow.
What This Means for Sellers
Waiting does not automatically equal a higher sale price.
Sellers succeed when they:
- Price strategically (not aspirationally)
- Prepare and position professionally
- Understand that buyers are comparing value more closely than ever
Homes that ignore these fundamentals sit longer and often sell for less.
What This Means for Buyers
This is a rare window of leverage:
- More choice
- Less competition
- Longer days on market
- Stronger negotiating power
Many buyers who wait for rate cuts end up buying into the next price rebound instead.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Winter 2025–Early 2026
- Muted activity
- Prices stabilize
- Buyers watch rates and job trends
Spring 2026
- Rising inquiries
- First-time buyers re-enter
- More defined rate guidance
Late 2026–Early 2027
- Potential rate relief
- Inventory compression
- Competitive pressure returns—especially for well-located freeholds and townhomes
Let’s Talk Strategy
If you’re thinking about your next move, now is the time to plan—not react.
- Request a 2026 Strategic Market Plan
- Book a Pre-Spring Pricing & Positioning Consultation
- Get a First-Time Buyer Roadmap built around clarity and confidence
If you’d like a neighbourhood-specific snapshot or advice tailored to your goals, reach out anytime. I’m here to help you navigate these shifting conditions with clarity, strategy, and confidence—into the new year and beyond.
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