For the first time in years, Ottawa buyers are setting the pace. September brought the most room to shop, negotiate and take your time of any September in the past decade — and for anyone who sat out the bidding wars, that is the headline that matters.
The opportunity isn’t the same for everyone, though. Who benefits most depends on what you’re buying, what you’re selling and where you’re looking.
September Market Snapshot
- Sales: 1,010 homes sold, down 6.6% from September 2025 and up 0.8% from August. Buyers are still active, but far fewer are competing for each home.
- New listings: 2,927, up 38.1% from August — roughly triple the typical August-to-September increase.
- Active listings: 4,813, up 7.9% year over year — the second-highest September selection since 2016.
- Average price: $685,640, down 1.0% year over year. The median was $625,000, down 0.8%.
- MLS® HPI composite benchmark: $623,500, down 2.2% from August — the largest August-to-September dip in a series dating to 2005, and a better entry point for buyers than a month ago.
- Buyer leverage: roughly one sale for every three new listings and 4.8 months of inventory — the most buyer-friendly September reading in a decade.
- Time and terms: median time on market is 27 days, and homes are selling for about 2.5% below asking on average. In September 2021, homes sold above list in a median of 11 days.
This Month by the Numbers
Key takeaway: Ottawa buyers have more selection, more time and more negotiating room than they’ve had in a decade — and that window tends to narrow as fall listings recede.
Financing & Rate Outlook
The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on September 2, but fixed rates moved the other way. The lowest five-year fixed climbed from about 4.09% to roughly 4.24%, and sub-4% options are gone.
That is the clearest reason to act on financing now, even if you aren’t ready to buy this month. A pre-approval with a rate hold protects you if fixed rates keep rising. The next Bank of Canada decision is October 28.
Who This Market Favours Right Now
First-time buyers who have been outbid before
Many Ottawa buyers still remember losing home after home to unconditional offers and feeling that buying took luck as much as a down payment. This market is different. With homes selling below asking and sitting nearly a month, you can make offers with home inspection and financing conditions, take a second look, and negotiate. And because you aren’t selling a home first, you’re exactly the kind of buyer sellers want in a slower market.
The condo segment is the most accessible entry point: the apartment benchmark is $380,800, down 6.1% from a year ago and 11% below three years ago.
Investors and buyers who don’t need to sell first
Cash-ready and pre-approved buyers have the most leverage in a supply-heavy market. Apartments are sitting at 7.3 months of inventory, with benchmark values well below recent peaks. A word of balance: Ottawa’s rental market is softening too, with many newer rental buildings offering incentives. This is a long-term acquisition opportunity at a better price — not a quick cash-flow play — and it pays to run the numbers carefully.
Condo owners hoping to move up
Condo owners across Canada have described feeling stuck — unable to sell for what they hoped, and unable to move up without that equity. There’s no sugar-coating it: your sale may come in below what you planned. But the leverage you give up selling, you regain buying. Sellers of larger homes are now facing far more competition, and single-family benchmarks are down 3.0% from August. The right strategy — how you sequence the sale and the purchase, and the conditions you negotiate — can make this move work.
Public servants rethinking where they live
With four-day office attendance now in effect for thousands of federal employees, many households are re-evaluating location. Others are weighing early retirement, with more than 9,400 applications approved as eligible so far. For downsizers, the math is especially favourable right now: single-family values have held close to last year at $705,100, while condo values are down about 6%. If you have clarity on your job and your plans, a shorter commute or a smaller footprint may cost less than you think.
Buyers considering new construction
Expanded HST relief on qualifying new homes is drawing buyers — new-home sales were up 55.2% year over year in August. If you’re eligible, it’s worth comparing new and resale side by side before you commit.
What This Means If You’re Selling
More listings mean pricing and presentation matter more than they have in years. But there’s an opening for prepared sellers: in each of the past ten years, new listings have declined in both October and November. A well-priced, well-presented home listed into a thinning fall market can face less competition than it would in spring. Suburban sellers are on the firmest footing — Suburb West is the tightest submarket at 3.7 months of inventory.
Broader Context — Worth Watching
Ottawa’s unemployment rate rose to 7.4% in August, and the federal workforce has shrunk by more than 23,000 over two years. That uncertainty has kept many buyers on the sidelines — which is part of why those who are ready face so little competition. Canada’s counter-tariffs took effect September 8, adding to the bond-market pressure behind rising fixed rates.
On the policy side, council approved a 54% cut to residential development charges over three years, Ontario’s 2027 rent increase guideline is set at 1.9%, and housing is front and centre in this month’s municipal election.
The Bottom Line
September gave Ottawa buyers something they haven’t had in a long time: choice, time and leverage. Whether you’re buying your first home, moving up, downsizing or investing, the households who benefit most will be the ones who get their financing and strategy in place before this window closes.
If you’ve been waiting for the right moment, or you’re not sure what this market means for your situation, I’d love to talk it through. Whether it’s your first purchase, a move-up from a condo, or a downsize after a career change, let’s map out what makes sense for you.
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