Ottawa’s market stayed in buyers’ favour in October — but sales ticked up and fewer new listings came on, giving sellers a little breathing room for the first time in months.
The headline is mixed, which means the details — by property type and by neighbourhood — matter more than usual.
October Market Snapshot
- Sales: 1,048 homes sold, down 10.7% from October 2025 but up 3.8% from September — the third-lowest October total since 2016.
- New listings: 2,382, down 1.2% year over year and 18.6% from September, though still the third-highest October count since 2016.
- Average price: $678,512, down 4.5% from a year ago and 1.0% from September.
- MLS® HPI composite benchmark: $616,900, down 1.3% year over year and 1.1% month over month. After seasonal adjustment, the decline slowed to about 0.5%, from 1.5% in September.
- Active listings: 4,582, down 4.8% from September but up 6.4% from a year ago — the second-highest October inventory since 2016.
- Market balance: months of inventory eased to 4.4 (from 4.8), and the sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 44.0% (from 34.5%). Last October: 3.7 months and 48.7%.
- Median days on market: 25.5, versus 27 in September and 25 a year ago. Homes sold for 97.5% of list price on average.
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board, October 2026.
Key takeaway: buyers still have more choice than they’ve had in years, and the pace of price declines is slowing — a combination that tends not to last forever.
This Month by the Numbers
Financing and Rate Outlook
Borrowing costs turned a corner this month. On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% — its first increase since July 2023 — citing persistent inflation and rising energy prices, and it left the door open to further increases. The next decision is December 9.
In practical terms, the low-rate window some buyers were waiting for may be narrowing rather than widening. One mortgage broker estimated the hike adds roughly $15 a month per $100,000 of variable-rate debt — modest on its own, but a signal. If you’re planning a purchase in the next six months, a pre-approval with a rate hold is worth securing now.
Who This Market Favours Right Now
First-time buyers who’ve been outbid before
This is the clearest opening of the year for entry-level buyers. Apartment months of inventory reached 7.4, and the apartment benchmark is $377,500, down 5.3% from a year ago. That means time to compare, ask questions and negotiate terms — rather than racing against multiple offers. Townhouses are softer too, with a benchmark of $539,800, down 4.3%.
Investors who don’t need to sell first
With inventory near decade highs for October, investors buying with cash or existing equity can be selective, particularly in the condo segment. The province has also set the 2027 rent increase guideline at 1.9%, useful for modelling returns on rent-controlled units.
Owners moving up from a condo or townhouse
If you’ve felt stuck, the softness cuts both ways. Your condo may sell for less than you’d hoped — but the single-family home you’re moving to is also in a market with 4.0 months of inventory and a benchmark of $699,200, down 0.8%. Buying and selling in the same conditions often narrows the gap more than the headlines suggest.
What This Means If You’re Buying
Choice and negotiating room are on your side, especially in condos and in areas like Ottawa Centre, where months of inventory sit at 6.6. Sellers are more open to conditions, closing dates and price conversations than they were a year ago.
A word of balance: rates have started moving up, and fewer new listings over the winter could tighten selection by spring. Buyers who prepare now may find this winter’s conditions better than what follows.
What This Means If You’re Selling
October brought real relief — new listings fell faster than the usual seasonal drop and sales rose, so there’s less competition for your home than there was in September. The suburbs remain firmest: Ottawa Suburb East had 3.5 months of inventory and a 51.0% sales-to-new-listings ratio, with Suburb West at 3.7.
A word of balance: prices are still below last year, and homes that are well prepared and priced against recent neighbourhood sales are the ones that move. Sellers who list into a thinner winter field with the right price may stand out before spring inventory returns.
Worth Watching
Employment and the public service. OREB highlighted a Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives analysis showing roughly 15,000 fewer people employed in Ottawa since March 2025 — a larger loss than in any other large Ontario municipality. Nationally, Canada shed jobs for a second straight month in September, and the largest federal public service union says 120,000 workers will hold strike votes beginning this month. If your household’s plans depend on federal employment, it’s worth building those scenarios into your timing rather than waiting for certainty.
The federal budget. The 2026 federal budget had not been released at the time of publishing. We’ll cover what it means for Ottawa homeowners and buyers in next month’s market update.
Provincial and new-home measures. Ontario’s Fall Economic Statement, tabled October 29, reaffirmed the $8.8-billion Canada-Ontario Partnership to Build — aimed at reducing development charges — along with temporary HST relief on new homes. That relief may be drawing some buyers toward new construction; the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association reported September new-home sales up 81.5% year over year.
City Hall. Mark Sutcliffe was re-elected mayor on October 26. In OREB’s candidate survey, 76% of responding candidates supported more housing in existing neighbourhoods and 88% backed faster development approvals.
Important Dates
City of Ottawa winter activities. Online registration opens Tuesday, November 17 at 9 pm for winter swimming, and Thursday, November 19 at 9 pm for all other recreation, arts and cultural activities. In-person registration begins the following day.
Santa Claus parades:
- Kanata: Saturday, November 14, 10 a.m., from Holy Redeemer Church
- Help Santa Toy Parade (downtown): Saturday, November 21, 11 a.m., Queen Elizabeth Driveway to Lansdowne Park
- Manotick Kiwanis Parade of Lights: Friday, November 27, 7 p.m., Main Street
- Riverside South Toy Mountain Parade: Saturday, November 28, 11 a.m.
- Orléans Santa’s Parade of Lights: Saturday, November 28, 6 p.m., St-Joseph Blvd.
- Barrhaven: Sunday, November 29, 5:30 p.m., Strandherd Drive
- Richmond Village: Saturday, December 5, 5:30 p.m. (tree lighting at 5:15 p.m.)
- Metcalfe (30th anniversary): Sunday, December 13, 2 p.m.
Bank of Canada rate decision. December 9.
New rent guideline. The 1.9% guideline applies to rent increases from January 1, 2027.
The Bottom Line
Ottawa remains a buyer-leaning market with near-record October inventory — but October showed the first signs of easing pressure: fewer new listings, slightly stronger sales and a slowing pace of price declines. With rates starting to rise, the window may not stay this open for long. In conditions like these, preparation and strategy matter more than timing the headline.
If you’re wondering what October’s numbers mean for your home, your neighbourhood or your timeline — whether you’re weighing a first purchase, a move up from a condo, or a sale before spring — I’d be glad to walk through it with you. Every street in Ottawa is behaving a little differently right now, and a conversation about your specific situation is the best place to start.
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