Key Highlights at May 2022:
- Unemployment hit the lowest on record and all while not seeing significant wage growth. With inflation still increasing, it’s a matter of time before it starts to take a toll on households.
- The highest industry in job loss was construction and real estate. Job loss in both sectors are now the highest since 2018.
- Toronto is currently in a full-blown 2017 moment with troubled residential sales weighing on pricing.
Jobs market still remarkably strong
- Housing data may potentially begin to shift but the broader economy is still sky rocketing for now.
- Wage growth continues to deteriorate which damages consumers and households a lot given how high inflation is currently.
- Wages slowed to just 3.4% year over year (y/y) in April, which puts them sharply negative in real terms.
Business is looking to Hire
- The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)’s latest Barometer continues to display that businesses are planning to increase prices much faster than wages over the next year.
- Job vacancies are at a record breaking high. There were 826,000 job openings in February, up 300,000 from one year earlier and up by 500,000 since early 2019.
- Business hiring intentions are now the strongest they’ve been since 2014.
Toronto house prices slip, sales tumble
- The latest Toronto sales data confirmed this steep slowdown in demand. Seasonally adjusted sales plunged 26% month over month (m/m) and have now fallen 40% in the past 2. Not even during the Financial Crisis did we see demand erode that rapidly.
Toronto house prices slip, sales tumble
- The latest Toronto sales data confirmed this steep slowdown in demand. Seasonally adjusted sales plunged 26% month over month (m/m) and have now fallen 40% in the past 2. Not even during the Financial Crisis did we see demand erode that rapidly.
Prices Soften
- April saw the second largest monthly decline in seasonally adjusted average house prices since at least 2005.
- Detached home sales plunged 45% y/y and were down 26% sequentially. The only other April that ever had a monthly decline that steep was 2020 during the lockdowns.
- Condo sales fell 34% y/y in Toronto. The market clearly peaked in February. Condo sales in April were lower than in February for only the second time on record.
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