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High Interest Rates Impacting the Market, But Population Growth Will Soon Spur Demand

  • The impact of high borrowing costs, high inflation, uncertainty surrounding future Bank of Canada decisions and slower economic growth continued to weigh on Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales in September.
  • Despite the market being better-supplied with listings, the average selling price was up year-over-year.The short and medium-term outlooks for the GTA housing market are very different. In the short term, the consensus view is that borrowing costs will remain elevated until mid-2024, after which they will start to trend lower.
  • This suggests that we should start to see a marked uptick in demand for ownership housing in the second half of next year, as lower rates and record population growth spur an increase in buyers.
RESIDENTIAL STATS

In September 2023, GTA REALTORS® reported 4,642 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in September 2023 – down 7.1% compared to September 2022.

The year-over-year dip in sales was more pronounced for ground-oriented homes, particularly semi-detached houses and townhouses. On a month-over-month seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were also down slightly.

GTA home selling prices remain above the trough experienced early in the first quarter of 2023. However, we did experience a more balanced market in the summer and early fall, with listings increasing noticeably relative to sales.

This suggests that some buyers may benefit from more negotiating power, at least in the short term. This could help offset the impact of high borrowing cost.
What is seasonal adjustment? Seasonality refers to a monthly (or quarterly) pattern that occurs in roughly the same manner from one year to the next, e.g., sales are highest in the spring and lowest in the winter each year.
COMMERCIAL STATS

The “All Leasing Activity (Sq. Ft.)” chart summarizes total industrial, commercial/retail and office square feet leased through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.
The “All Sales Activity” chart summarizes total industrial and commercial/retail and office sales through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.

In conjunction with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) redistricting project, historical data may be subject to revision moving forward. This could temporarily impact per cent change comparisons to data from previous years.

Distinctive Real Estate Advisors Inc., Brokerage is pleased to present a recap of the latest market forecast release and September highlights from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

We’d welcome an opportunity to discuss the High Interest Rates Impacting the Market, but Population Growth will Soon Spur Demand. If you have any questions about our services, please contact our team.

Cooler Toronto Market Holds Steady Through Summer

HIGHER INTEREST RATES LEAD TO FEWER HOME SALES

  • Higher borrowing costs, continued uncertainty about the economy and Bank of Canada decision making, and the constrained supply of listings resulted in fewer home sales in August 2023 compared to August 2022. The average selling price remained virtually unchanged over the same period.
  • New listings were up by 16.2 per cent year-over-over, providing some relief on the supply front, but year-to-date listings are still down substantially compared to the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted sales were down slightly by one per cent month-over-month compared to July 2023, while new listings were up slightly by 1.3 per cent compared to July.
  • In the broader Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Markets, sales were down slightly as compared to August 2022, signalling a cooler summer market.

RESIDENTIAL STATS

Total Residential Transactions Average Selling Price Total New Listings Residential Property Days on Market

CONDO PRICES SOFTEN AND SALES PICK UP

  • High interest rates has put downward pressure on condominium prices (down 4.2% compared to Q2 last year) and sales have simultaneously picked up (increased by 20.7% compared to Q2 last year)
  • The constraint of new listing is keeping a steady flow of sales in the condo market, but not creating a frenzy within the condominium market with listings taking slightly longer to sell than during the same period last year (20 days on market vs. 15 days on market during Q2 last year).
  • Condominium rentals are up on all fronts, including number of rentals, price and new listings coming to market.

CONDOMINIUM SALES STATS

Total Condo Apartment Sales Total New Listings Condo

CONDOMINIUM RENTAL STATS

Apartment Rental Stats

COMMERCIAL STATS

All Leasing Activity

The “All Leasing Activity (Sq. Ft.)” chart summarizes total industrial, commercial/retail and office square feet leased through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.
The “All Sales Activity” chart summarizes total industrial and commercial/retail and office sales through Toronto MLS® regardless of pricing terms.

Average Leasing Rates Commercial

In conjunction with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) redistricting project, historical data may be subject to revision moving forward. This could temporarily impact per cent change comparisons to data from previous years.

Distinctive Real Estate Advisors Inc., Brokerage is pleased to present a recap of the latest market forecast release and August highlights from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

We’d welcome an opportunity to discuss the Cooler Toronto Market Holds Steady Through Summer. If you have any questions about our services, please contact our team.

Toronto Land Transfer Tax — What’s New and What’s Coming?

Provincial (Ontario) Land Transfer Tax Changes – 2017

2016 was a big year for changes in the Canadian Real Estate Market. On the heels of the announcement in October regarding changes in the mortgage underwriting rules for first time home buyers (ultimately reducing the buying power of first-time home buyers in Canada, read more here), the province announced changes to provincial land transfer tax which are aimed at helping increase affordability for first time home buyers, effective January 1, 2017.

Here are the changes:

Ultimately these changes are expected to have negative implications on transactions over $2 Million which, in the City of Toronto, represents a large part of the real estate market for centrally-located detached homes.

But Toronto is unique in that, unlike all other municipalities in Ontario, it has a municipal land transfer tax in addition to the provincial land transfer tax.

City of Toronto Municipal Land Transfer Tax – Proposed Changes

The City of Toronto is currently exploring raising the Municipal Land Transfer Tax in order to meet 2017 budget objectives. The effect would be an additional 0.5 per cent of tax on all buyers.

This could mean a seven per cent increase of $750 on top of the $11,000 for an average priced home purchased by a repeat buyer in Toronto.

Tim Hudak, CEO-designate of the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) said that if the city increases the municipal land transfer tax, it would effectively be “clawing back” the additional rebate offered by the province. Hudak says, “Unfortunately, Toronto is proposing to swipe up to 25 per cent of the provincial savings out of the pockets of young couples and put it into city coffers instead.”

Toronto Real Estate Board has launched a website to combat the City on the increase of land transfer tax.

Toronto City Council will finalize its budget in February 2017.

Would you like to be kept informed on the latest in Toronto Real Estate? Contact a member of our team to be kept in the loop or sign up for our monthly real estate updates today.

2016 Change to Mortgage Qualifying Rules for First-Time Home Buyers — Explained

You might remember an uproar regarding real estate in October 2016, but what was that all about?

Without notice or preparation, the Canadian government announced on October 3rd, 2016 several major changes to mortgage rules aimed at curbing high demand in two of the country’s fastest growing markets — Toronto and Vancouver.

Bank of Canada implemented what they call a “stress test” for first-time buyers, forcing them to qualify for their mortgages at the Bank of Canada posted rate or 4.64% rather than the actual mortgage rates, reducing buying power for first-time home buyers across the board.

Why?

This was a very clear message from the Bank of Canada that interest rates would soon start rising, and true to form, they’ve already started. Since first-time home buyers often stretch their budgets and take on more than they can afford (and many lenders don’t prevent this from happening) this is the government’s way of protecting our housing market from a potential crash as a result of rising interest rates.

What’s the actual impact? (view the CBC article here)

Although this may temporarily slow the market in some areas, this move is expected to have positive ripple effects on the economy and is a much needed shifting of the winds for Canada.

In 2016, a mere 33 percent of individuals looking to purchase a home were first-time home buyers and in 2017, stats are showing over 50 percent of people with an eye for the home buying market will be first time purchasers. Even more astounding, over 60 percent of those buyers are under the age of 35. 2017 will most likely be the year that the Millennials begin their real estate takeover and the market will never be the same.

Looking for your first home or know someone who is? Contact a member of our team today to learn how we can help you with your real estate transaction and mortgage financing needs.

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